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Panorama du Gaz renouvelable 2019
La revue soGaz #5

Gas System Outlook for Winter 2019/2020

No alert for the security of the gas supply

Dowload the 2019/2020 Winter Outlook

Thierry Trouvé, CEO of GRTgaz, and Dominique Mockly, President and CEO of Teréga, presented the “Winter Outlook 2019/2020” today, as well as the main gas system prospects for next winter.
Gas transmission system operators are not issuing any specific alerts as of now. The gas system should meet the demand of all French gas consumers next winter, even in the event of an exceptional cold spell. This analysis is based on the capacities offered to shippers, as well as their subscription levels to supply the network at the various entry and exit points (border interconnections, LNG terminals, underground storage). The commissioning of the Trading Region France (TRF) infrastructures, created on 1 November 2018, has given rise to an average increase of 42% in the transit capacity of the transmission networks between the North and the South of France. As at 31 October 2019, the level of subscribed volumes in storage amounted to 129 TWh – the highest since 2010.

GRTgaz and Teréga recall that the security of the gas supply depends on the balanced use of the different gas infrastructures in France throughout the winter, including the use of different transmission network entry points, good management of storage withdrawal, and LNG inflows at the LNG terminals.

A French market at the crossroads of Europe
One year after its establishment, the TRF has strengthened the competitiveness and attractiveness of the French market. Twenty new shipper customers were recorded over the period (159 compared to 139 on 31 October 2018). The introduction of a single gas price for the French wholesale market has made it possible to reduce the price differences often observed until now between the North and the South of the country, while aligning it more closely with that of the dynamic North European marketplaces. The price of the French PEG (gas exchange point) fell below €8/MWh in September 2019, the lowest since 2009. This was in particular due to the influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
LNG flows have doubled in France over the past year (+102%), representing a total of around 20% of European LNG supplies – a figure that is almost on a par with Spain.
On 8 November, France even registered record physical LNG inflows of 1,226 GWh (equivalent to the production of 51 nuclear plants1).

Several other record flows were observed, over a full day, at the interconnection points of the transmission networks: off-take to Spain (224 GWh2 on 25 February 2019), off-take to Italy (255 GWh on 8,9, 10 and 11 October) and, for the first time, net physical off-take per day to Belgium (11.7 GWh on 8 November). In addition, a net inflow of 82 GWh from Spain to France was recorded on 10 November.

1 One nuclear plant = approx. 1,000 MW
2By way of comparison, average daily gas consumption for the Ile-de-France region is equivalent to 200 GWh.

Chafia BACI : chafia.baci(at)grtgaz.com – tel: + 33 1 55 66 44 88